Yes position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.61
- Potential payout
- $614.56
- Potential profit
- $613.95
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.03
Polymarket Trader
Mikelaawrey
0x6bc74c392c320cfe10d5be61db978a58c8444ad4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $807.48
- Realized PnL
- $62.25K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $189
- Potential payout
- $450
- Potential profit
- $261
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- -$25.5
Yes position
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $18.8
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $381.2
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.7%
- Current value
- $123.05
- Potential payout
- $388.79
- Potential profit
- $265.74
- Multiplier
- 3.16x
- User PnL
- $70.73
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $11.16
- Potential payout
- $359.97
- Potential profit
- $348.81
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$25.08
No position
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $219.43
- Potential payout
- $353.93
- Potential profit
- $134.49
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$28.32
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $52.63
- Potential payout
- $329.99
- Potential profit
- $277.36
- Multiplier
- 6.27x
- User PnL
- -$170.76
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $12.75
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $287.25
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$14.25
Yes position
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $36.44
- Potential payout
- $235.12
- Potential profit
- $198.67
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $20.41
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $21.38
- Potential payout
- $225
- Potential profit
- $203.63
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$59.12
Yes position
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $198.1
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $2.47
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $187.53
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$26.03
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.69
- Potential payout
- $153.29
- Potential profit
- $152.6
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$46.17
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $19.94
- Potential payout
- $137.5
- Potential profit
- $117.56
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $23.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $96.6
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$24.8
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $4.51
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $105.49
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$6.27
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $82
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $5.7
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.3
- Multiplier
- 17.54x
- User PnL
- -$12.3
Y
Yes position
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.15
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $2.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $97.55
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $35.55
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $54.45
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$9.45
Yes position
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $79
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $5.2
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $74.8
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$26.42
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $62.11
- Potential profit
- $61.55
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$19.44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.01K
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.77K
Yes position
US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.29K
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.93K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.93K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
US military action against Iran by Saturday?
Ends Jun 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $997.79
No position
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $939.97
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $894.59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?Yes 1.6% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 21% 20 shares
- Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?No 7% 20 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 0.1% 1,000 shares
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No 0.9% 10.03 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 0.1% 1,000 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.8% 18 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 1.3% 100 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 3.5% 16.3 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 10 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes 99.6% 78.94 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 99.9% 35.74 shares