Polymarket Trader

Oferp

0x6d930c5e4d2057cf63d0533744eb6e6a6a08f70a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.64K
Realized PnL: $7.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $335.01
Potential payout: $2.15K
Potential profit: $1.82K
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $125.01

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $118.75
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $18.75

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.6%
Current value: $238.87
Potential payout: $1.22K
Potential profit: $982.96
Multiplier: 5.12x
User PnL: $38.87

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $131.18
Potential payout: $937
Potential profit: $805.82
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$168.82

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $246.36
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $467.93
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$53.64

Yes position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $11.11
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $544.44
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$88.89

Yes position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $108.26
Potential payout: $481.15
Potential profit: $372.89
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$1.74

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $209.76
Potential payout: $441.61
Potential profit: $231.84
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$90.24

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.3%
Current value: $355.53
Potential payout: $427.06
Potential profit: $71.53
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $55.53

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $319.57
Potential payout: $409.71
Potential profit: $90.14
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $19.57

Yes position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $44.27
Potential payout: $340.57
Potential profit: $296.29
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$55.73

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $194.15
Potential payout: $329.08
Potential profit: $134.92
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: -$5.85

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $231.62
Potential payout: $246.54
Potential profit: $14.92
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $31.62

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $96.74
Potential payout: $217.39
Potential profit: $120.65
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$3.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $680.95

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $664.64

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $623.13

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $543.85

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.93

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $513.54

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $436.99

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $325.19

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $300

No position

Israel strikes Iran before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $254.95

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $245.78

Yes position

Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.61

No position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.59

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.17

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.24

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.48

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.79

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.77

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.77

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.22

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.83

Yes position

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.49

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Yes 46% 217.39 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Yes 60.8% 329.08 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Yes 73.2% 409.71 shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 16.4% 608.33 shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 16.3% 613.5 shares
Knicks vs. Spurs

Spurs 65% 153.85 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Yes 54.3% 368.38 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 29% 344.83 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

No 84% 595.24 shares
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score

Yes 74.9% 400.49 shares
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

No 77% 259.62 shares
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Yes 85.6% 52.08 shares