No position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $771.6
- Potential profit
- $771.6
- User PnL
- -$14.63
Polymarket Trader
JohnBankruptcy
0x6db21a181412ef1cadfd29f580ff0c4c8d77a781
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $54.74
- Realized PnL
- $15.75K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $534.55
- Potential profit
- $534.55
- User PnL
- -$15.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $130
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.94
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $124.06
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $121.43
- Potential profit
- $121.43
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.1
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $5.58
- Potential payout
- $96.16
- Potential profit
- $90.58
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- $0.57
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $9.06
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $53.44
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $1.77
- Potential payout
- $37.74
- Potential profit
- $35.96
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $1.44
- Potential payout
- $28.05
- Potential profit
- $26.61
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $3.69
- Potential payout
- $23.08
- Potential profit
- $19.38
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $2.63
- Potential payout
- $18.75
- Potential profit
- $16.13
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $6.28
- Potential payout
- $11.32
- Potential profit
- $5.04
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.05
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $0.8
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.2
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $2.8
- Potential payout
- $8.11
- Potential profit
- $5.31
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $5.45
- Potential profit
- $2.59
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $2.53
- Potential payout
- $5.11
- Potential profit
- $2.58
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.35
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.85
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $4.84
- Potential profit
- $1.98
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $3.98
- Potential payout
- $4.76
- Potential profit
- $0.79
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $4.03
- Potential payout
- $4.29
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.6%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $4.24
- Potential profit
- $3.24
- Multiplier
- 4.25x
- User PnL
- -$0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $928.82
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $883.84
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $854.54
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $639.43
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $589.04
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $544.1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $525.79
Yes position
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $520.29
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $498.36
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $447.61
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $408.56
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.02
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: January
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.08
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $298.44
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.6
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $249.32
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247.85
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $239.28
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 84% 4.76 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes 5.3% 37.74 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No 86% 3.49 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes 72% 4.17 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 62% 4.84 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 23.6% 4.24 shares
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1% 100 shares
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 0.8% 125 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?No 88% 3.41 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?No 93.3% 4.29 shares
- Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?No 97.3% 4.11 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 53% 5.66 shares