Polymarket Trader

bung

@chervaliae

0x6dc6e256460fe13c396dbcb9ebe224e794cc2399

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $90.59
Realized PnL: $1.92K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.58K
Potential profit: $5.58K
User PnL: -$20.99

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $909.09
Potential profit: $909.09
User PnL: -$10

France position

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $437.97
Potential profit: $437.97
User PnL: -$18.29

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $353.63
Potential profit: $353.63
User PnL: -$54.06

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $336.67
Potential profit: $336.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$6.5

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $188.68
Potential profit: $188.68
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $79.14
Potential payout: $115.54
Potential profit: $36.39
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $19.14

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$10

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$5

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$10

Mexico position

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.55
Potential profit: $42.55
User PnL: -$20

Norway position

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 80.2%
Current value: $10.02
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $2.48
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $6.27
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $0.42

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.98

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $337.41

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.83

Yes position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.96

Yes position

Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.64

Crawford position

Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.3

No position

Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?

Ends Nov 25, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.9

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.33

No position

Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.47

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.14

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49

Yes position

Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.28

Max Holloway position

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.89

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.23

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.54

No position

Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.28

Yes position

Grokipedia released by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.02

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.23

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.92

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?

Ends Nov 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.36

No position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.31

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.59

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.63

No position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.98

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

France 0.8% 150 shares
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

9.1% 10.47 shares
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

France 1.6% 100 shares
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

France 35.7% 27.97 shares
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Norway 34% 29.41 shares
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Max Holloway 72% 138.89 shares
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance

Mexico 47% 42.55 shares
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?

Yes 17% 58.82 shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No 80% 12.5 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Yes 98.3% 406.92 shares
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Yes 90% 11.11 shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 64.4% 15.54 shares