Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $375
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $49.63K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$25
Polymarket Trader
vainglorious87
0x6e031ff76916136e18ff1d2f0fbabd9a7f45dd32
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.59K
- Realized PnL
- $36.4K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.4K
- Potential profit
- $28.4K
- User PnL
- -$11.83K
Yes position
Will MrBeast raise between $40m and $41m by midnight?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.74K
- Potential profit
- $7.74K
- User PnL
- -$7.58K
No position
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.58K
- Potential profit
- $7.58K
- User PnL
- -$6.72K
Blue Jays position
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.34K
- Potential profit
- $4.34K
- User PnL
- -$1.99K
No position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.77K
- Potential profit
- $3.77K
- User PnL
- -$491.93
No position
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.3K
- Potential profit
- $3.3K
- User PnL
- -$2.45K
Yes position
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- User PnL
- -$727.28
No position
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $1.7K
- User PnL
- -$764.78
No position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.45K
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $84.4
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $148.46
Yes position
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$243.84
Yes position
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $985.72
- Potential profit
- $985.72
- User PnL
- -$87.69
No position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $312.65
- Potential payout
- $947.41
- Potential profit
- $634.76
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$246.33
Yes position
Will Steve be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$55
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.99
- User PnL
- -$90
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $456.09
- Potential profit
- $456.09
- User PnL
- -$35.02
No position
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $254.9
- Potential payout
- $261.57
- Potential profit
- $6.67
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $27.22
No position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $201.25
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $48.75
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$8.75
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$32
Yes position
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $157.99
- Potential profit
- $157.99
- User PnL
- -$29.44
No position
Will Kamala say "god" in her speech after the election is called?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$58.5
Yes position
Will Senor Tilt be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$16.5
Yes position
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$36
Yes position
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$24.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.05K
No position
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.07K
No position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75K
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64K
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.62K
No position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54K
Yes position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
No position
Will Israel invade Lebanon before March?
Ends Feb 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
No position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
Will Kamala announce VP pick on Monday?
Ends Aug 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $686.61
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $671.61
No position
Will the final global heat increase be 1.18 or greater for 2023?
Ends Dec 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $614.95
No position
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $591.75
No position
Will Remilia's stolen funds be returned this month?
Ends Sep 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $576.93
No position
Did Kanye sell his twitter account?
Ends Mar 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.74
Yes position
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $540.27
No position
Binance insolvent in 2023?
Ends Dec 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $526
Yes position
Hamas still in power in Gaza by Oct 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $471.35
No position
North Korea nuke by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $421.13
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $419.11
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $407.01
Yes position
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?
Ends Jan 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $406.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 0.8% 50,000 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETUp 6% 83.33 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETDown 94% 5.32 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETDown 70% 7.14 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Yes 71% 5 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Yes 73% 10 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Yes 72% 8 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No 80% 12.5 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No 79% 30 shares
- California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?No 87% 261.57 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?No 22% 100 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No 79% 9.22 shares