Polymarket Trader

lox-frogs

0x6e4976c274384ada57ae03b75e463585ad01f1af

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.27K
Realized PnL: $18.95K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.37K
Potential profit: $9.37K
User PnL: -$246.48

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.57K
Potential profit: $6.57K
User PnL: -$176.73

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.17K
Potential profit: $6.17K
User PnL: -$17.12

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.39K
Potential profit: $4.39K
User PnL: -$9.37

Yes position

Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the first round?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.36K
Potential profit: $4.36K
User PnL: -$4.36

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $2.55K
User PnL: -$17.27

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$11.7

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $2.4K
User PnL: -$127.16

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.95K
Potential profit: $1.95K
User PnL: -$20.06

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $183.74
Potential payout: $1.94K
Potential profit: $1.76K
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: -$123.87

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $1.89K
User PnL: -$514.96

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $1.85K
User PnL: -$5.83

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.8%
Current value: $177.32
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.64K
Multiplier: 10.26x
User PnL: -$152.55

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.76K
Potential profit: $1.76K
User PnL: -$131.27

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $523.8
Potential payout: $1.61K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$181.17

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $1.46K
User PnL: -$17.13

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
User PnL: -$94.66

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 23.1%
Current value: $256.64
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $856.76
Multiplier: 4.34x
User PnL: $51.24

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
User PnL: -$16.67

No position

Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$40.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $23.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $976.5
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $18.5

No position

U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $998
Potential profit: $998
User PnL: -$39.92

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $105.23
Potential payout: $997.46
Potential profit: $892.23
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$60.57

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63K

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $843.28

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $842.3

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $745.2

Yes position

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $685.58

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $566.75

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $535.93

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $529.14

Yes position

Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $529

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6PM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $522.81

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $519.24

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.2%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $517.83

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $488.92

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $481.99

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $478.35

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $471.03

No position

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $468.18

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.74

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $462.99

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 9% 580.83 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 68.8% 494 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 68% 195.34 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 99.8% 10 shares
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score

Yes 99.9% 354.99 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Yes 99.9% 25.69 shares
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)

Switzerland 99.9% 87.62 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 99.9% 220.88 shares
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)

Switzerland 92% 87.62 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?

No 5% 397.48 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 8.7% 100 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 63% 143.12 shares