No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.4%
- Current value
- $10.55
- Potential payout
- $125.65
- Potential profit
- $115.1
- Multiplier
- 11.90x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Polymarket Trader
0x6E598171FAB193DdCDb311C549f8335cb1CbfaAE-1769863000756
0x6e598171fab193ddcdb311c549f8335cb1cbfaae
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.48
- Realized PnL
- -$80.48
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.01
- Potential profit
- $56.01
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.78
- Potential profit
- $48.78
- User PnL
- -$8.14
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.26
- Potential profit
- $31.26
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $11.91
- Potential payout
- $12.57
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.11
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.99
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$5.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.12
No position
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.58
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$39.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No 85.9% 12.57 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 7.8% 63.92 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 8.1% 61.73 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?No 88% 21.25 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Yes 32.1% 56.01 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 20% 90.79 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 52% 5.3 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 52% 9.8 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 58% 10 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 53% 28 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes 64.2% 5.8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 15% 7.6 shares