Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $22.46K
- Potential payout
- $136.12K
- Potential profit
- $113.66K
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$40.36K
Polymarket Trader
Amrosein
0x706ccabb8023add7fe4e773aaaab812eb2d6a94b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.46K
- Realized PnL
- $34.59K
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.58K
- Potential profit
- $12.58K
- User PnL
- -$6K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.85K
- Potential profit
- $8.85K
- User PnL
- -$5.6K
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.39K
- Potential profit
- $2.39K
- User PnL
- -$51
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $760.9
- Potential profit
- $760.9
- User PnL
- -$200
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.91K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.37K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7K
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $958.13
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $862.59
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $859.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.56
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.52
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $47.91
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.77
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.06
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.03
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$124.35
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$231.23
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$844.08
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$940.02
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.56K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 52.9% 1,134.32 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 65% 4,615.38 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 64.6% 3,098.25 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 41.8% 2,390.04 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 43% 4,651.16 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 43% 2,325.58 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Yes 92% 2,173.91 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 67% 1,492.54 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 91% 5,674.04 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 26% 1,923.08 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 28% 1,785.71 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 70% 1,428.57 shares