Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $68.15K
- Potential payout
- $290K
- Potential profit
- $221.85K
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$76.85K
Polymarket Trader
ColdConviction
0x70c14608f9c06ad9a5f48f1d6ddb6c0fc2d41be2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $430.68K
- Realized PnL
- $50.39K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $221.85K
- Potential payout
- $290K
- Potential profit
- $68.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $76.85K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $28.33K
- Potential payout
- $28.4K
- Potential profit
- $71
- User PnL
- $2.06K
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $18.86K
- Potential payout
- $20.62K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.63K
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $18.45K
- Potential payout
- $18.59K
- Potential profit
- $139.44
- User PnL
- $1.37K
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $14.11K
- Potential payout
- $14.17K
- Potential profit
- $63.76
- User PnL
- $844.94
No position
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $13.91K
- Potential payout
- $14K
- Potential profit
- $91
- User PnL
- $889.03
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $7.41K
- Potential payout
- $8.19K
- Potential profit
- $778.26
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $719.91
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $7.93K
- Potential payout
- $8.01K
- Potential profit
- $72.05
- User PnL
- $506.28
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $4.54K
- Potential payout
- $7.89K
- Potential profit
- $3.35K
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$357.29
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.1K
- Potential payout
- $7.07K
- Potential profit
- $5.98K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.14K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $6.93K
- Potential payout
- $6.99K
- Potential profit
- $59.41
- User PnL
- $849.29
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $4.78K
- Potential payout
- $6.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $1.71K
No position
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $3.8K
- Potential payout
- $3.83K
- Potential profit
- $28.69
- User PnL
- $245.66
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $2.95K
- Potential payout
- $3.45K
- Potential profit
- $500.03
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $399.54
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $2.22K
- Potential payout
- $2.22K
- Potential profit
- $5.55
- User PnL
- $167.76
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $1.84K
- Potential payout
- $1.89K
- Potential profit
- $42.46
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.94
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $99.85
- Potential payout
- $1.88K
- Potential profit
- $1.78K
- Multiplier
- 18.87x
- User PnL
- -$40.93
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $442.98
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $694.33
- Multiplier
- 2.57x
- User PnL
- $5.25
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $945.2
- Potential payout
- $950.43
- Potential profit
- $5.23
- User PnL
- $80.31
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $895.55
- Potential payout
- $919.93
- Potential profit
- $24.38
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $7.92
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $334.11
- Potential payout
- $777
- Potential profit
- $442.89
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$69.93
Yes position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $249.75
- Potential payout
- $666
- Potential profit
- $416.25
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$83.25
Yes position
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $551.11
- Potential payout
- $555
- Potential profit
- $3.88
- User PnL
- $13.32
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.73K
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.94K
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.01K
No position
Trump out as President by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78K
No position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $983.85
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $863.57
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $715.05
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $659.61
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $616.83
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $577.72
Yes position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546.19
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $501.02
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $479.2
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $446.31
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $404.26
No position
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.85
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.18
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $350.76
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 99% 5 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 92.6% 15.86 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No 91% 1,433.14 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No 92% 145.85 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 97.3% 666 shares
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No 92% 32.65 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 29.3% 60.19 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 58% 682 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 97.8% 517.16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 97.5% 164.52 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 97% 348.88 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No 85% 1,790.18 shares