No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $296.55
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $3.45
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.95
Polymarket Trader
FactMechanic
0x70defa6950cb86fa73e49f88375e0f2800e38cf2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $654.23
- Realized PnL
- $1.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $169
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $31
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$9
N
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.2%
- Current value
- $86.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $13.85
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$5.85
Yes position
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $46.38
- Potential payout
- $50.14
- Potential profit
- $3.76
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $46.98
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $3.02
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $6.6
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $3.4
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Over position
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $2.58
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.43
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$2.42
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Under position
Wichita State Shockers vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 151.5
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $346.5
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.96
Cavaliers position
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.42
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.93
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Ends Feb 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.42
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.39
Down position
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.41
Down position
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 10PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.32
Over position
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.66
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.16
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.24
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.66
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.34
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.98
Pelicans position
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.09
Up position
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.85
Down position
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Yes 93% 50.14 shares
- Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Under 94% 100.18 shares
- World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?No 94.4% 100 shares
- BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ETUp 99.9% 19.51 shares
- Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ETUp 99% 278.89 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ETUp 93.6% 322.22 shares
- Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ETDown 99% 22.7 shares
- XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ETDown 95% 314.14 shares
- Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ETDown 99.8% 311.31 shares
- Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ETUp 99.9% 8.97 shares
- Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETDown 99.9% 44.77 shares
- Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ETDown 99.9% 20.24 shares