No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $16.13K
- Potential payout
- $37.08K
- Potential profit
- $20.95K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $4.09K
Polymarket Trader
groth
0x71abe97b83eaba3f06cb04fd4d9a03ee37d2f015
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $96.59K
- Realized PnL
- $71.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $23.28K
- Potential payout
- $24.08K
- Potential profit
- $806.84
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $2.66K
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.17K
- Potential profit
- $18.17K
- User PnL
- -$5.59K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $11.55K
- Potential payout
- $14K
- Potential profit
- $2.45K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $2.19K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $8.01K
- Potential payout
- $13.03K
- Potential profit
- $5.02K
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $2.4K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $7.22K
- Potential payout
- $8.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Yes position
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.7K
- Potential profit
- $7.7K
- User PnL
- -$296.41
No position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.1%
- Current value
- $4.92K
- Potential payout
- $5.72K
- Potential profit
- $794.51
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $36.36
Yes position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.26K
- Potential profit
- $5.26K
- User PnL
- -$330.46
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $5.11K
- Potential payout
- $5.17K
- Potential profit
- $59.49
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.31K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $4.75K
- Potential payout
- $4.8K
- Potential profit
- $45.6
- User PnL
- $319.52
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $3.58K
- Potential payout
- $4.14K
- Potential profit
- $559.03
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $983.91
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $1.36K
- Potential payout
- $4.06K
- Potential profit
- $2.7K
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $295.63
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.73K
- Potential profit
- $3.73K
- User PnL
- -$76.26
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.7K
- Potential profit
- $3.7K
- User PnL
- -$248.99
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $3.05K
- Potential payout
- $3.65K
- Potential profit
- $602.28
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $828.43
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $3.16K
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $237.71
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $822.05
Yes position
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $1.4K
- Potential payout
- $3.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.74K
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $907.16
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $3.01K
- Potential payout
- $3.05K
- Potential profit
- $31.99
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.62K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $32.78
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.95K
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$115.82
Yes position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.62K
- Potential profit
- $2.62K
- User PnL
- -$241.98
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $12.24
- Potential payout
- $2.45K
- Potential profit
- $2.44K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$105.86
Yes position
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.37K
- Potential profit
- $2.37K
- User PnL
- -$51.55
No position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.27K
- Potential profit
- $2.27K
- User PnL
- -$70.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.91K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.22K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.95K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $8.47K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $3.25K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
No position
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $921.91
No position
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $836.12
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $834.11
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $821.47
No position
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $765.47
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $761
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $728.41
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $616.45
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $614.86
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $556.53
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $552.59
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $535.02
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $511.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 2% 328.68 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes 91% 133.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 34% 332.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 42% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 15% 66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 23% 221.44 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 83% 500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 20% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 24% 327.56 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 16% 520.44 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 16% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 16% 1,000 shares