Yes position
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $50
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $19.95K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$50
Polymarket Trader
LukiB
0x730da7d292794217736d5e4c4653c6cf0473d448
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $48.91K
- Realized PnL
- $8.67K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $15.23K
- Potential payout
- $15.27K
- Potential profit
- $38.17
- User PnL
- $898.65
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $9.48K
- Potential payout
- $9.5K
- Potential profit
- $23.75
- User PnL
- $226.89
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $4.7K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $297.5
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $179.31
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $2.71K
- Potential payout
- $3.25K
- Potential profit
- $536.25
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $643.83
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $2.98K
- Potential payout
- $3.11K
- Potential profit
- $129.17
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $332.09
Yes position
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- User PnL
- -$59.42
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $2.68K
- Potential payout
- $2.7K
- Potential profit
- $21.6
- User PnL
- $628.06
No position
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $1.95K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $47
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $31.8
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.74K
- Potential payout
- $1.99K
- Potential profit
- $249.08
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $146.78
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $1.25K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $247.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $247.51
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $1.22K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $26.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $115.11
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.25K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $3.13
- User PnL
- $65.8
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.19K
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $5.4
- User PnL
- $24.6
No position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.8%
- Current value
- $917.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $82.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $27.5
No position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$310
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $819.99
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $180
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.4%
- Current value
- $490.1
- Potential payout
- $749.96
- Potential profit
- $259.86
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$76.85
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$420
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $233.5
- Potential payout
- $237.3
- Potential profit
- $3.8
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $46.04
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $169.62
- Potential profit
- $169.62
- User PnL
- -$76.66
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$87.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $965.51
No position
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $946.94
No position
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $412.68
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $400.01
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340.07
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $336.13
No position
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.57
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.38
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.03
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.35
No position
Khamenei seen in public by March 2?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.1
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.17
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.01
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.02
No position
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.49
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.9
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.89
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $112
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99.1% 363.12 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 4% 499.53 shares
- Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 0.5% 20,000 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 89% 750 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 88.7% 1,250 shares
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No 81% 51.4 shares
- Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 75.5% 34.98 shares
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 95.7% 219.6 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 63% 750 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 89% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 83% 3,663 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 95% 2,105.26 shares