Polymarket Trader

Baumfreund

0x73136987179ff23408fec2634801e135818fcbbc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $118.57
Realized PnL: $1.49K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.72
Potential profit: $104.72
User PnL: -$39.48

Yes position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $41
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $59
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $82.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$5.5

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$23

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$7

No position

Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.97
Potential profit: $81.97
User PnL: -$3.28

No position

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $41.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $14.2

Yes position

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $41.5
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.98
Potential profit: $49.98
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.14
Potential profit: $36.14
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $29.99
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $0.82
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.18
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: -$4.98

Yes position

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.83
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $3.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.99
Multiplier: 6.64x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.35
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$6.3

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $4.43
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.58
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

Ends May 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.59

No position

Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.2

No position

Trump executive order curbing FEMA before February?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $111.22

Yes position

Will Biden remove nicotine from cigarettes?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.2

No position

Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Ends Feb 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.04

No position

Senator Eichorn guilty of soliciting a child?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.4

No position

Georgescu in jail before Romanian election?

Ends May 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

No position

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.6

Yes position

Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.56

No position

Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.62

No position

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.06

No position

Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.68

Yes position

Will Trump say "Woke" at CPAC conference on Saturday?

Ends Feb 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.54

Yes position

Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?

Ends Jan 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $44.95

No position

Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.21

Yes position

Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.15

No position

Explode App #1 utility app in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.56

No position

Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.47

No position

Will Coinbase list $TRUMP in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.74

Yes position

Yoon released from custody before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.2

No position

Will Trump mention DeepSeek by Friday?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36

Yes position

Trump pulls US from UN Human Rights Council in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36

Yes position

Pakistan military strike on India in May?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.19

No position

Will the Sunset wildfire reach Hollywood Blvd by Friday?

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Yes 37.7% 104.72 shares
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 36% 20 shares
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Yes 7.6% 36.14 shares
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?

Yes 12% 29.99 shares
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Yes 40% 100 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 18.4% 20 shares
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Yes 23% 100 shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Yes 20% 100 shares
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 49% 10 shares
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Yes 63% 10 shares
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 30% 10 shares
Will Iran strike UAE in March?

No 6% 67.05 shares