Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $230.57
- Potential payout
- $5.43K
- Potential profit
- $5.19K
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- $13.56
Polymarket Trader
RiskyyLemon
0x731c34cd5ea5a7ba7c8101b9978724cbb57a637d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.76K
- Realized PnL
- $5.15K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $197.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.8K
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $29
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.2K
- Potential profit
- $4.2K
- User PnL
- -$230.21
Yes position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $494.02
- Potential payout
- $3.95K
- Potential profit
- $3.46K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$460.34
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $12.25
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.49K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$437.75
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $46.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.95K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$34.5
Yes position
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $96.37
- Potential payout
- $2.54K
- Potential profit
- $2.44K
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- -$190.2
Yes position
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$142.25
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $401.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- Multiplier
- 6.23x
- User PnL
- -$11.06
Yes position
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- User PnL
- -$25.62
Lakers position
Lakers vs. Rockets
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $2.01K
- User PnL
- -$270.42
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$5.16
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $42
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$32.57
Yes position
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $71.6
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- -$4.88
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $8.25
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.49K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$380.53
No position
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$122.98
Timberwolves position
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- User PnL
- -$640
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $96.11
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $965.83
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- $5.55
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$29.42
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.3%
- Current value
- $62.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $937.5
- Multiplier
- 16.00x
- User PnL
- -$47.5
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $999.98
- Potential profit
- $997.98
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$127.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $660
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $605.15
Yes position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $447.05
Pistons position
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $305
Yes position
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.1
Yes position
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.5
Raptors position
Cavaliers vs. Raptors
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $213
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $200
Yes position
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $194.56
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.24
Pistons position
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175
Lakers position
Rockets vs. Lakers
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.13
No position
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.57
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $145
Yes position
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $134.7
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $130.57
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130
Lakers position
Lakers vs. Rockets
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $100.8
Yes position
Will AJ Brown be traded?
Ends Jul 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.65
Yes position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75
Yes position
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $74.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?Yes 2.9% 1,000 shares
- Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 2.9% 700 shares
- MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.4% 259.08 shares
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?Yes 10% 200 shares
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?Yes 7% 499.99 shares
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Yes 99.9% 978.5 shares
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons 51% 500 shares
- Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?Yes 99.3% 500 shares
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes 58% 1,000 shares
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Timberwolves 8% 200 shares
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Timberwolves 23% 100 shares
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves 13% 100 shares