Bugoz

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $15.54
Potential payout: $107.14
Potential profit: $91.61
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.12
Potential payout: $97.81
Potential profit: $80.69
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $3.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $13.2
Potential payout: $91.05
Potential profit: $77.85
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $19.85
Potential payout: $88.24
Potential profit: $68.38
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $4.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $13.48
Potential payout: $84
Potential profit: $70.52
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: $2.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $19.3
Potential payout: $78.8
Potential profit: $59.49
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $5.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $15.05
Potential payout: $77.2
Potential profit: $62.14
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $74.81
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.96
Potential profit: $72.96
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $11.43
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $60
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71
Potential profit: $71
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.33
Potential profit: $67.33
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $59.67
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $16.96
Potential payout: $65.22
Potential profit: $48.26
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $65.22
Potential profit: $65.18
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$14.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $10.63
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $51.88
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $16.5
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $43.5
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $7.18
Potential payout: $59.83
Potential profit: $52.65
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$7.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $14.71
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $42.98
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $15.11
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $39.84
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $14.03
Potential payout: $53.96
Potential profit: $39.93
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $12.83
Potential payout: $53.48
Potential profit: $40.64
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $7.47
Potential payout: $53.33
Potential profit: $45.86
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $51.7
Potential profit: $44.2
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $2.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.03

Yes position

Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $11.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.27x
User PnL: $10.53

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 93%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $9.42

No position

Netanyahu out by 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $9.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $8.66

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.58

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.57

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18?