No position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $288.19
- Potential payout
- $453.85
- Potential profit
- $165.65
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$11.35
Polymarket Trader
PaulPad
0x73628b1ce2efbe7b701685f531f4d91007b6a780
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $288.19
- Realized PnL
- -$1.7K
- Win rate
- 52.4%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $678.56
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $596.57
No position
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.07
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.59
Yes position
Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.54
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.41
No position
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.03
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.18
Yes position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.94
No position
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.16
Yes position
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
Yes position
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.56
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$136.62
No position
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$194.24
Yes position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$359.12
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$413.74
No position
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$658.72
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$765.94
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$985.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No 66% 453.85 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 17.4% 1,818.49 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 42% 5 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 70% 13 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 70% 130 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 70% 370 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 72% 12.22 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 72.6% 688.86 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Yes 71% 8 shares
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes 22.6% 1,022.86 shares
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes 47.9% 1,012.74 shares
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes 67.3% 1,679.35 shares