miniak

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $14.42
Potential profit: $3.96
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $2.45

No position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $5.11
Potential payout: $10.87
Potential profit: $5.76
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $4.64
Potential payout: $7.94
Potential profit: $3.29
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$0.36

Anthropic position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $7.59
Potential profit: $1.9
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $7.19
Potential profit: $6.2
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $7.04
Potential profit: $6.01
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $5.83
Potential payout: $5.95
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.83

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $5.09
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $0.79
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.8%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $5.05
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $3.92
Potential payout: $3.97
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $3.74
Potential profit: $0.26
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3.16
Potential profit: $1.66
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $2.52
Multiplier: 5.15x
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $1.69
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $1.41
Potential payout: $2.44
Potential profit: $1.02
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $1.56
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $2.15
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $1.96
Potential profit: $1.52
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $1.96
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.4%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $1.92
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.3%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $1.85
Potential profit: $1.14
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keynote?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.79
Potential profit: $1.79
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Yes position

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

No position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.83

Yes position

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.74

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.29

No position

Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?