Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $67.22
- Potential payout
- $3.84K
- Potential profit
- $3.77K
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
Polymarket Trader
estoicc
@estoicc
0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $842.59
- Realized PnL
- $2.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $29.06
- Potential payout
- $1.88K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.4
- Potential payout
- $850
- Potential profit
- $846.6
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$13.6
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $673.93
- Potential profit
- $671.57
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$25.64
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $263.61
- Potential profit
- $258.2
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$17.8
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $5.01
- Potential payout
- $197.1
- Potential profit
- $192.1
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$18.02
Yes position
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $23.75
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $166.25
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.05
No position
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $174.68
- Potential payout
- $176
- Potential profit
- $1.32
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $1.95
- Potential payout
- $162.34
- Potential profit
- $160.4
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$14.16
Yes position
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $148.73
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$12.23
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $76.43
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $66.43
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $12.21
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $2.21
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $127.79
- Multiplier
- 58.82x
- User PnL
- -$14.69
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $100.77
- Potential payout
- $122.89
- Potential profit
- $22.12
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.23
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.87
- Potential profit
- $115.87
- User PnL
- -$84
No position
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $99.73
- Potential payout
- $110.81
- Potential profit
- $11.08
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $6.73
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.57
- Potential payout
- $100.54
- Potential profit
- $87.97
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$19.08
No position
Will Natus Vincere Make a Roster Change before September?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $30
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $70
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $25.46
- Potential payout
- $97.91
- Potential profit
- $72.45
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- $3.46
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $1.65
- Potential payout
- $94
- Potential profit
- $92.36
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$26.56
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $39.15
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $50.85
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$9.45
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $77.31
- Potential payout
- $87.36
- Potential profit
- $10.05
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $2.46
- Potential payout
- $80.67
- Potential profit
- $78.21
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $74.38
- Potential profit
- $74.34
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.86
N
No position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $60.72
- Potential payout
- $71.02
- Potential profit
- $10.3
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $864.81
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $261.27
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.17
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.19
No position
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.19
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.45
Yes position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.24
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.85
Y
Yes position
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $69.11
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.85
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.5
No position
Major US official out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.57
No position
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $33.55
Yes position
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.32
No position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $32.28
Yes position
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.58
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.74
No position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.12
No position
Chirayu Rana fired?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $27.58
No position
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.39
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.38
Y
Yes position
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No 87% 87.36 shares
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Yes 8% 50 shares
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No 60% 214.24 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No 68% 170 shares
- World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?No 78% 19.99 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No 83% 122.89 shares
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?No 83.9% 110.81 shares
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No 44.3% 214.25 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No 88% 71.02 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 75.7% 34.19 shares
- Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?No 93.7% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 2.3% 31.87 shares