Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $6.61K
- Potential payout
- $49K
- Potential profit
- $42.38K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$6.7K
Polymarket Trader
FarseerProphecies
0x746fb1be8434cfa4398c124aeff69f034e3e566d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.8K
- Realized PnL
- $10.27K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.9K
- Potential profit
- $42.9K
- User PnL
- -$4.07K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.01K
- Potential profit
- $21.01K
- User PnL
- -$42.02
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $187.35
- Potential payout
- $19.72K
- Potential profit
- $19.53K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.44K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.84K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- User PnL
- -$12.85
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$16.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9K
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $449.46
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $429
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $265.36
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $185.97
Yes position
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $185.96
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $160.13
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $125.74
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $92.71
Yes position
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.34
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.41
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.26
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.79
Yes position
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.42
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.87
Yes position
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $36.21
Yes position
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.84
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.2
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.04
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.59
No position
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 24, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.02
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Yes 58% 54.88 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Yes 59% 54.88 shares
- Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 1.3% 1,358.39 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Yes 0.1% 340 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 7% 974.99 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Yes 1.2% 999.99 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19% 2,000 shares
- Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Yes 34.1% 7.13 shares
- Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Yes 34.8% 340 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19% 1,000 shares
- Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Yes 34.6% 57.4 shares
- Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Yes 34.8% 485 shares