Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $4.79
- Potential payout
- $91.28
- Potential profit
- $86.49
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Polymarket Trader
sanchez.
0x74cfcd0719e14123b6e94c901bbb848f43c84d07
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $149
- Realized PnL
- $11.45
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $44.47
- Potential payout
- $47.06
- Potential profit
- $2.59
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $4.47
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $35.76
- Potential payout
- $41.34
- Potential profit
- $5.58
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $5.76
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.92
- Potential profit
- $22.92
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.01
- Potential profit
- $18.01
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $11.99
- Potential payout
- $13.7
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.99
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $10.49
- Potential payout
- $12.56
- Potential profit
- $2.07
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $10.61
- Potential payout
- $12.12
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.28
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.96
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $10.89
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.89
No position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $9.73
- Potential payout
- $10.99
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.87
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 5.5% 91.28 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 11.49 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Yes 48% 22.92 shares
- Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?No 68% 1.47 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?No 87% 11.49 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No 85% 47.06 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 67% 14.93 shares
- Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?Yes 27.8% 18.01 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 82.5% 12.12 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?No 86.9% 5.75 shares
- Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No 89% 11.24 shares
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 89% 11.24 shares