Polymarket Trader

probability

@selectedadverse

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.12K
Realized PnL: $167.82K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $492.07
Potential payout: $89.47K
Potential profit: $88.98K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$313.76

No position

Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?

Ends Nov 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.4K
Potential profit: $83.4K
User PnL: -$438.58

No position

Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12?

Ends Oct 12, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.15K
Potential profit: $38.15K
User PnL: -$440.33

India position

ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.95K
Potential profit: $32.95K
User PnL: -$672.87

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.72K
Potential profit: $31.72K
User PnL: -$878.59

No position

Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw?

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.88K
Potential profit: $26.88K
User PnL: -$2.08K

Yes position

Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.48K
Potential profit: $26.48K
User PnL: -$1.51K

No position

Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.09K
Potential profit: $25.09K
User PnL: -$258.21

Yes position

Will Georgia win on 2025-10-14?

Ends Oct 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.04K
Potential profit: $24.04K
User PnL: -$24.04

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.59K
Potential profit: $23.59K
User PnL: -$2.79K

Yes position

Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.05K
Potential profit: $23.05K
User PnL: -$678.81

Yes position

Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $333.84
Potential payout: $23.02K
Potential profit: $22.69K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$874.8

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.64K
Potential profit: $22.64K
User PnL: -$1.49K

Yes position

Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.37K
Potential profit: $22.37K
User PnL: -$1.84K

No position

Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.2K
Potential profit: $22.2K
User PnL: -$222.01

Yes position

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $154.62
Potential payout: $22.09K
Potential profit: $21.93K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$237.39

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.06K
Potential profit: $22.06K
User PnL: -$1.66K

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.62K
Potential profit: $20.62K
User PnL: -$76.99

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.08K
Potential profit: $20.08K
User PnL: -$2.65K

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$1.75K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.54K
Potential profit: $18.54K
User PnL: -$402.2

Yes position

Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.34K
Potential profit: $18.34K
User PnL: -$2.4K

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $136.75
Potential payout: $18.23K
Potential profit: $18.1K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$196.66

Yes position

Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.5K
Potential profit: $17.5K
User PnL: -$193.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.34K

Yes position

Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.19K

No position

Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw?

Ends Oct 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.37K

Yes position

Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw?

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.78K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.6K

No position

Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14?

Ends Oct 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.07K

Yes position

Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.51K

No position

Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11K

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.04K

Yes position

Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.59K

Yes position

Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.45K

Yes position

Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.99K

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.52K

Yes position

Will Fulham win on 2024-12-26?

Ends Dec 26, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.51K

Yes position

Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27?

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.41K

No position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $4.3K

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29K

Yes position

Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16K

Yes position

Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.88K

Fernandes position

Cong vs. Fernandes

Ends Nov 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77K

Yes position

Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.25 million and $2.5 million by December 16?

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.57K

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52K

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.46K

Yes position

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?

No 91.3% 31 shares
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?

No 66.6% 185 shares
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30?

No 96.6% 133 shares
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by June 30?

No 91% 40.75 shares
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?

No 89.8% 95 shares
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?

Yes 11% 44 shares
Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?

Yes 10% 119.76 shares
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?

Yes 23.7% 116.08 shares
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?

Yes 30.6% 42.41 shares
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?

Yes 24% 43.82 shares
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?

Yes 15.3% 41.7 shares
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?

Yes 15.5% 152.19 shares