No position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.73K
- Potential profit
- $17.73K
- User PnL
- -$5.71K
Polymarket Trader
Rizk
0x74f7d7113cd4f7ccde77d29e61e9efb598d677c3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.45K
- Realized PnL
- $5.78K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $1.28K
- User PnL
- -$1K
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $98.08
- Potential payout
- $784.62
- Potential profit
- $686.54
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$101.92
No position
John Bolton federally charged by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $768
- Potential profit
- $768
- User PnL
- -$641.15
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $432.45
- Potential payout
- $691.91
- Potential profit
- $259.47
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $132.45
Yes position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.7%
- Current value
- $303.65
- Potential payout
- $526.26
- Potential profit
- $222.61
- Multiplier
- 1.73x
- User PnL
- $3.65
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $472.41
- Potential payout
- $499.9
- Potential profit
- $27.49
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $270.81
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $402.92
- Potential payout
- $405.56
- Potential profit
- $2.64
- User PnL
- $110.92
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $279.01
- Potential payout
- $282.25
- Potential profit
- $3.25
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $79.01
No position
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $239.48
- Potential payout
- $239.83
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- User PnL
- $87.08
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$118
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $167.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $32.5
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $16.91
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $151.52
- Potential profit
- $151.52
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$86.88
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $145.7
- Potential profit
- $145.7
- User PnL
- -$108.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.85
- Potential profit
- $132.85
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $29.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $90.6
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $102.65
- Potential profit
- $102.65
- User PnL
- -$55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $86.18
- Potential profit
- $86.18
- User PnL
- -$44.31
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85.86
- Potential profit
- $85.86
- User PnL
- -$55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $82.72
- Potential profit
- $82.72
- User PnL
- -$60
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $79.37
- Potential profit
- $79.37
- User PnL
- -$50
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.74
- Potential profit
- $61.74
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $29.74
- Potential payout
- $51.72
- Potential profit
- $21.98
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $628.93
No position
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $622.02
No position
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $529.71
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $486.43
No position
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $389.83
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by October 15?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $277.16
Yes position
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.24
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $260
No position
Will Israel annex Gazan territory before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.62
Yes position
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.14
No position
Will an FBI agent be charged for leaking ICE plans?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.95
No position
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.6
No position
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.72
No position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.76
No position
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.23
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.43
No position
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.08
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.18
Yes position
Will Karoline Leavitt say Elon or Musk during next White House press briefing?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113
Yes position
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.61
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.14
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.8
No position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102
No position
Netanyahu out by 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 58.3% 171.6 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 57% 87.79 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 56.8% 88 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 57% 87.79 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 54.9% 91.09 shares
- Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?Yes 48% 41.67 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Yes 58% 51.72 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?Yes 25% 120 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETUp 47% 10.64 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETUp 46% 10.87 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETDown 40.6% 12.32 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETDown 37% 13.51 shares