Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $146.38K
- Potential profit
- $146.38K
- User PnL
- -$17.16K
Polymarket Trader
cynical.reason
0x75253f58071564ba95f36258fcfb1e918552cde1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $395.75K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40K
- Potential profit
- $40K
- User PnL
- -$760
Yes position
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.44K
- Potential profit
- $37.44K
- User PnL
- -$996.11
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.09K
- Potential profit
- $35.09K
- User PnL
- -$468.79
Yes position
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.8K
- Potential profit
- $10.8K
- User PnL
- -$756
No position
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.4K
- Potential profit
- $9.4K
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.73K
- Potential profit
- $7.73K
- User PnL
- -$1.04K
No position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.37K
- Potential profit
- $7.37K
- User PnL
- -$1.96K
No position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.61K
- Potential profit
- $5.61K
- User PnL
- -$160.22
No position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.24K
- Potential profit
- $4.24K
- User PnL
- -$106.59
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.78K
- User PnL
- -$741.1
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $626.86
- Potential profit
- $626.86
- User PnL
- -$94.03
Yes position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $585.01
- Potential profit
- $585.01
- User PnL
- -$11.7
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $497.09
- Potential profit
- $497.09
- User PnL
- -$23.96
Yes position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $420
- Potential profit
- $420
- User PnL
- -$145
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.79K
Yes position
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 25k and 30k?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.39K
Yes position
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.68K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.72K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.05K
Yes position
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $24.61K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.94K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.28K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.4K
Yes position
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be between 15k and 20k?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.63K
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.51K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.68K
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.6K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $4.3K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.26K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.04K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.12K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5K
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.26K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.22K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 12% 0.1 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 98.3% 2.04 shares
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?No 86% 114.37 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes 15% 2,289.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 39% 18,827.25 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes 18% 25,507.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 59% 45,598.4 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Yes 39% 87 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 39% 54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 41% 30,859.46 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 35.8% 24,797.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 52.5% 6,946.69 shares