Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $980.3
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $6.02K
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$574.37
Polymarket Trader
RolandDrump
0x75322cd79943489a4a747587afd4cbbecf57c6fc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.4K
- Realized PnL
- $23.99K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $373.4
- Potential payout
- $6.98K
- Potential profit
- $6.61K
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$542.35
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$15.15
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.8%
- Current value
- $290.63
- Potential payout
- $750.01
- Potential profit
- $459.38
- Multiplier
- 2.58x
- User PnL
- $260.63
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $84.48
- Potential payout
- $610
- Potential profit
- $525.51
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$15.55
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.3%
- Current value
- $214.45
- Potential payout
- $560.66
- Potential profit
- $346.21
- Multiplier
- 2.61x
- User PnL
- -$231.39
Yes position
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $430.15
- Potential profit
- $430.15
- User PnL
- -$11.1
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $190
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $210
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $20.52
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $271.35
- Potential payout
- $364.23
- Potential profit
- $92.88
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$11.4
Yes position
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$43
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85K
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.53K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.99K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $832.83
US position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $745.42
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $544.24
No position
Will BNB reach $950 in December?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $528.03
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $524
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $522.91
No position
Will BNB reach $1000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $485.28
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $464.82
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $427.65
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $424.85
No position
Will XRP dip to $1.80 December 29-January 4?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $392.57
No position
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.7
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $374.74
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $368.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 92% 1,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 92% 1,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 91% 500 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 91% 500 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 91% 1,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 70% 505 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 42.4% 400 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 74.5% 364.23 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 77.1% 429.03 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 77% 369 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 77.9% 99.99 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 78% 166.36 shares