Schnitzelwiener

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $108.05
Potential payout: $360.18
Potential profit: $252.13
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$30.79

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $6.45
Potential payout: $263.34
Potential profit: $256.89
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$3.55

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $7.51
Potential payout: $130.67
Potential profit: $123.16
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$3.49

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $121.02
Potential payout: $126.86
Potential profit: $5.84
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.72

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $12.95
Potential payout: $126.29
Potential profit: $113.35
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $13.86
Potential payout: $124.31
Potential profit: $110.45
Multiplier: 8.97x
User PnL: -$6.14

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 20.6%
Current value: $25.45
Potential payout: $123.85
Potential profit: $98.4
Multiplier: 4.87x
User PnL: $14.45

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $28.33
Potential payout: $123.46
Potential profit: $95.12
Multiplier: 4.36x
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $6.97
Potential payout: $121.24
Potential profit: $114.27
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$5.03

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $99.46
Potential payout: $107.53
Potential profit: $8.06
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.54

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $90.55
Potential payout: $98.97
Potential profit: $8.41
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.45

No position

Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $58.93
Potential payout: $59.32
Potential profit: $0.39
User PnL: $3.93

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $51.78
Potential payout: $51.97
Potential profit: $0.18
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $7.51
Potential payout: $51.79
Potential profit: $44.28
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $2.96
Potential payout: $48.15
Potential profit: $45.19
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$27.04

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $46.23
Potential payout: $48.03
Potential profit: $1.8
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $6.23

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $42.53
Potential payout: $42.6
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $2.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.36
Potential profit: $36.36
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $26.65
Potential payout: $35.53
Potential profit: $8.88
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$6.35

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $31.66
Potential payout: $32.67
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.66

No position

Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 82.6%
Current value: $24.57
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $5.19
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $30.77

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.48

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.18

No position

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.3

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.76

No position

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.37

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.4

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.97

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $6.43

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $2.91

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $2.4

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $2.32

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.37

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42%
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?