No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $2.78K
- Potential payout
- $2.88K
- Potential profit
- $96.41
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $281.6
Polymarket Trader
Keith123
0x7567a89b2547b9011ba61a7cb8267bd2da236c48
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.27K
- Realized PnL
- $2.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $531.76
- Potential payout
- $571.78
- Potential profit
- $40.02
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $31.76
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $428.73
- Potential payout
- $438.6
- Potential profit
- $9.87
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $28.73
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $305.12
- Potential payout
- $352.74
- Potential profit
- $47.62
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $5.12
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $322.58
- Potential profit
- $322.58
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $285.71
- Potential profit
- $285.71
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $226.55
- Potential payout
- $238.1
- Potential profit
- $11.55
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $26.55
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $224.72
- Potential profit
- $224.72
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.24
- Potential profit
- $148.24
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.58
- Potential profit
- $131.58
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.94
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.02
No position
Iran military response by Monday?
Ends Aug 12, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.62
No position
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.78
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.73
No position
Iran military response by Friday?
Ends Aug 9, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.5
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.71
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.19
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.9
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.82
Yes position
Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.9
Yes position
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.76
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.27
No position
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.97
No position
U.S. Recession in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
No position
Iran military response by Friday?
Ends Aug 16, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.7
No position
Iran military response by Friday?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.59
Yes position
Will Barcelona win La Liga?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.68
No position
Iran military response before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.96
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.05
No position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.89
Yes position
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.74
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.52
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No 91.2% 438.6 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Yes 7% 142.86 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Yes 31% 322.58 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No 76% 131.58 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 85% 352.74 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No 87.4% 571.78 shares
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No 70% 285.71 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No 89% 224.72 shares
- Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?No 67.5% 148.24 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No 63% 79.37 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No 67% 74.63 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No 76% 65.79 shares