Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $406.95
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- $22.2
Polymarket Trader
gelugon
0x75d3c1fad4ec173bcde6516b308392bd8482de26
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $406.95
- Realized PnL
- $2.49K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288.9
Yes position
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.63
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.81
No position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.04
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.01
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.43
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.95
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.32
Yes position
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.14
Yes position
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.83
Yes position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.55
Chargers position
Eagles vs. Chargers
Ends Dec 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.16
No position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.3
No position
Will Zohran Mamdani be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.12
No position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.66
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.47
No position
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.28
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.12
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.87
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?
Ends Dec 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.38
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.13
No position
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.65
Yes position
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.4
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Yes 98.4% 45.83 shares
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Yes 9% 48.59 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Yes 46% 45.83 shares
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Yes 54% 48.59 shares
- Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?No 69% 29.51 shares
- Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?No 79% 38.77 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 18% 3,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 18% 3,000 shares
- Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Yes 99.8% 1,075.95 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 88% 416.67 shares
- Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Yes 98.1% 221.66 shares
- Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Yes 98.6% 794.29 shares