Polymarket Trader

XLR8arc

0x76492f8c535a09166708d350bd0220ab3f190cd2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $62.59
Realized PnL: $123.01
Win rate: 73.3%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $24.86
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $252.92
Multiplier: 11.17x
User PnL: $14.86

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $7.42
Potential payout: $203.23
Potential profit: $195.81
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$2.58

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $126
Potential profit: $126
User PnL: -$6.93

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.98
Potential profit: $99.98
User PnL: -$3.69

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $95.93
Potential profit: $94.01
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$0.38

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.91
Potential profit: $52.91
User PnL: -$7.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $22.75
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $27.24
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $14.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.96
Potential profit: $42.96
User PnL: -$5.93

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.32

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.87
Potential profit: $28.87
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $5.64
Potential payout: $25.65
Potential profit: $20.01
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$4.36

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.43

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $29.71

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.1

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.95

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.34

Yes position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.15

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.96

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.64

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.74

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.83

No position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$28.97

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 16% 49.99 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 39% 25.64 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 3.6% 277.78 shares
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Yes 11% 12.96 shares
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Yes 28% 30 shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 99.9% 18 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

No 48% 40.43 shares
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Yes 24% 40 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 48% 38.96 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 4.4% 30 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 26.1% 28 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 2.4% 95.93 shares