Polymarket Trader

orca2632

0x767178460fe3973399b585256f833e7893f99798

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $50.31
Realized PnL: $73.02
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.91
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$3.62

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $5.15

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.4

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.8
Potential profit: $9.8
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.61
Potential profit: $9.61
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.43
Potential profit: $5.43
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $3.47
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.53
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $2.27

No position

Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.58
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.65

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $4

No position

Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.43
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.23
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.77
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $2.62
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.38
Multiplier: 1.91x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $3.43
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.58
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.65
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0.75

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $3.35
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.65
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $4.82
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.98
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.87

No position

Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.65

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.4

No position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.66

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4

Ducks position

Oilers vs. Ducks

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 27?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86

Over position

Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85

No position

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.65

No position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.6

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4

Under position

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.9

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

Golden Knights position

Golden Knights vs. Utah

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.15

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.65

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Yes 37.4% 5 shares
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5

Over 21% 5 shares
Algeria to win the second half?

Yes 23% 5 shares
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series?

No 77% 5 shares
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5

Over 99.9% 5 shares
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5

Over 58% 5 shares
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?

Yes 0.1% 40.46 shares
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5

Over 24% 5 shares
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5

Over 35% 5 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 25.5% 5 shares
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?

Yes 22.8% 5 shares
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?

No 22% 5 shares