overengineer

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.74
Potential profit: $33.74
User PnL: -$4.39

Up position

Solana Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.45
Potential profit: $30.45
User PnL: -$4.63

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $27
User PnL: -$21.6

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.1
Potential profit: $17.1
User PnL: -$11.12

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$11.64

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$11.64

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$11.64

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$11.76

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$8.76

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.99
Potential profit: $11.99
User PnL: -$7.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$9.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$9.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.54
Potential payout: $7.19
Potential profit: $6.65
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $7.18
Potential profit: $7.16
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $6.85
Potential profit: $6.06
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $6.66
Potential profit: $6.03
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $6.66
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $6.6
Potential profit: $5.71
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $6.6
Potential profit: $5.87
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 30?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $6.6
Potential profit: $6.07
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $6.6
Potential profit: $6.12
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $6.6
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $6.54
Potential profit: $5.79
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 30?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $6.54
Potential profit: $4.74
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $1.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

Bucks position

Heat vs. Bucks

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.38

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.15

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.9

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.29

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $7.24

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.69

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.8

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.07

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.78

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.58

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Down position

XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET