Yes position
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $112.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.89K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$112.5
Polymarket Trader
0xarise
@arisehype
0x771293a34f18f936023bbaa37db010a232030c28
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.53K
- Realized PnL
- $32.58K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $112.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.89K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$87.5
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $587.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.41K
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- $212.5
Yes position
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $162.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.84K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$37.5
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $635
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.36K
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $412.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.59K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $137.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.86K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$112.5
Yes position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $237.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.76K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $5.25K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $4.75K
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$607.44
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $922.51
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.08K
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $95.01
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $367.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.63K
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$107.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $675
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.33K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$695
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $682.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.32K
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$117.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $1.47K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $3.52K
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$275
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.99K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$315.44
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.2%
- Current value
- $2.84K
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $659.74
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $376.25
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $795
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.21K
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$105
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $990
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.01K
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$180
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $321.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.18K
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $974.99
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.52K
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- -$504.96
Yes position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $899.98
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.6K
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- -$23.98
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.75K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $250
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.75K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $250
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $100.01
Yes position
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $422.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $77.5
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $62.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77K
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 15?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.09K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.98K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $985
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 16?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $890
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $852.15
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $793.65
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $724.82
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $662.5
No position
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $647.04
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $617.49
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $549.99
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $538.3
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 16?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $500
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 65% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 15.9% 3,288.71 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 15.7% 11,697.21 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 20.7% 145.42 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?No 99.5% 1,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes 54% 1,818 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes 34% 2,500 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 24% 3,728.35 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes 18.8% 6,645.83 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 53.1% 999.98 shares
- Claude 4.8 released by May 31?Yes 88.7% 401.76 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 67% 2,500 shares