Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $368.64
- Potential payout
- $374.44
- Potential profit
- $5.8
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $22.4
Polymarket Trader
Ajarn
0x772df8afa2f5ac8f84c4431140978e81de4a0deb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $785.48
- Realized PnL
- $11.75
- Win rate
- 81.8%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $285.54
- Potential payout
- $308.7
- Potential profit
- $23.15
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.54
No position
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $54.7
- Potential payout
- $59.13
- Potential profit
- $4.43
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3.84
No position
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.39
- Potential profit
- $24.39
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $19.69
- Potential payout
- $23.87
- Potential profit
- $4.18
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $10.32
- Potential payout
- $12.82
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $10.53
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $10.29
- Potential payout
- $11.49
- Potential profit
- $1.21
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.95
- Potential payout
- $10.99
- Potential profit
- $1.04
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $10.33
- Potential payout
- $10.92
- Potential profit
- $0.58
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $5.49
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $2.19
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.33
- Potential profit
- $3.33
- User PnL
- -$2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.83
Yes position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1
No position
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
Yes position
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.43
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 85% 31.62 shares
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yes 93% 300 shares
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Yes 99.1% 70.85 shares
- Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No 99.5% 42.23 shares
- Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Yes 99.1% 30 shares
- Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?No 96.7% 10.63 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?No 91% 11.62 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 92% 10.86 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93% 107.64 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 85% 20 shares
- Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?No 86% 59.13 shares
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yes 90% 50 shares