Polymarket Trader

southfly

@nanfeiye

0x773c28b96dac43ea671d840fd98f4f031eb6cc98

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.47K
Realized PnL: $2.9K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.9%
Current value: $618.45
Potential payout: $755.59
Potential profit: $137.14
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$35.77

No position

ByteDance IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $381.64
Potential payout: $406
Potential profit: $24.36
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.66

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $193.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $6.3
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $11.3

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $98.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $36.98
Potential payout: $40.41
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $24.28
Potential payout: $28.74
Potential profit: $4.45
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.72

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $20.38
Potential payout: $21.62
Potential profit: $1.24
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $16.39
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $3.61
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$2.03

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $18.87
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.13
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $18.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

USD1 depeg by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $18.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

USDE depeg by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $14.38
Potential payout: $16.16
Potential profit: $1.78
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $9.82
Potential payout: $12.2
Potential profit: $2.38
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $837.35

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $417.13

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $399.46

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.92

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.2

No position

USDT depeg in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.35

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.33

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.96

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.96

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.84

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.43

No position

S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.72

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.66

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.15

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.97

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.35

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

T1 position

LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)

Ends Nov 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 27?

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.67

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.8

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.23

No position

Will gas hit (Low) $3.10 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.52

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.7

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Yes 8% 17.24 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 82% 12.2 shares
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Yes 8.7% 225.41 shares
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?

Yes 72% 13.89 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Yes 73% 13.7 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 87% 28.74 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 96% 52.08 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 96% 31.25 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 92.5% 21.62 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Yes 58% 17.24 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 86% 23.26 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 85% 35.29 shares