Yes position
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $272.73
- Potential profit
- $272.73
- User PnL
- -$3
Polymarket Trader
Llama99
0x777781d5928f676630286a09761cea756c837e94
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $38.4
- Realized PnL
- $96.14
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $196.08
- Potential profit
- $195
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $1.39
- Potential payout
- $185.98
- Potential profit
- $184.59
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.61
Yes position
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $9.7
- Potential payout
- $135.9
- Potential profit
- $126.2
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- $8.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $78
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $9.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $40.25
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $1.61
- Potential payout
- $42.86
- Potential profit
- $41.25
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.39
Yes position
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $1.37
- Potential payout
- $37.97
- Potential profit
- $36.61
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$1.63
Yes position
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.1%
- Current value
- $3.7
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $29.63
- Multiplier
- 9.01x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $15.79
- Potential profit
- $15.32
- Multiplier
- 33.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.53
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $8.19
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $3.19
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $0.46
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.65
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $4.88
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.25
Yes position
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $6.77
Yes position
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.7
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.56
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $6.39
Gold position
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.47
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- $5.04
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $4.56
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- $4.48
No position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.07
Down position
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.82
Yes position
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76
No position
Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.12
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76
No position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04
Up position
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
Yes position
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 12+ times during Hungary PM events on November 7?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27?Yes 1.3% 78 shares
- Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes 0.7% 135.9 shares
- Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes 0.5% 196.08 shares
- Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes 2.7% 185.98 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes 40% 12.5 shares
- Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 7% 42.86 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 90% 35.06 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 77% 35.06 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 27% 20.81 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 27% 22.22 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 70.4% 16.18 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 74% 12.16 shares