Polymarket Trader

Smart-bettor7

0x7845161180695b5741fa3d71f203eaaac497417b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.23K
Realized PnL: $13.91K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.19K
Potential profit: $52.19K
User PnL: -$5.7K

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $50K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.73K
Potential profit: $34.73K
User PnL: -$633.16

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.6K
Potential profit: $18.6K
User PnL: -$5.56K

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.91K
Potential profit: $10.91K
User PnL: -$609.95

Vitality position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $235
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.77K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $45

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $139.5
Potential payout: $9K
Potential profit: $8.86K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$67.5

Yes position

Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.8K
Potential profit: $7.8K
User PnL: -$273.1

Yes position

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.5K
Potential profit: $5.5K
User PnL: -$104.5

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.49K
Potential profit: $5.49K
User PnL: -$25.13

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$600

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$99.89

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $197.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.8K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$52.5

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.79K
Potential profit: $4.79K
User PnL: -$27.23

No position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.6K
Potential profit: $3.6K
User PnL: -$714.21

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $477.75
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.02K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$82.25

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $3.17K
User PnL: -$936.33

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.12K
Potential profit: $3.12K
User PnL: -$199.59

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$330

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.78K
Potential profit: $2.78K
User PnL: -$1.21K

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $183.75
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.32K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$113.75

Yes position

Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$57.5

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.41K
Potential profit: $2.41K
User PnL: -$1.7K

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

Yes position

Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39K

Over position

Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $750

Hawks position

Nets vs. Hawks

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $713.4

Spurs position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $600

Over position

Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $588

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $587.84

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $571.87

Suns position

Suns vs. Timberwolves

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $546

Kings position

Rockets vs. Kings

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $498

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.68

Nuggets position

Nuggets vs. 76ers

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $492

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $489.47

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $427.5

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 2?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $425

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420

Yes position

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $409.49

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.75

Yes position

Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $398.63

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.19

No position

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390

Yes position

Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $385

No position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.22

Over position

Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $343

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

No 79% 350 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

No 78% 285.03 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

No 34% 899.99 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners

Over 59.9% 732.17 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners

Over 59% 99.18 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners

Over 58% 119.76 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 66% 2,300 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners

Over 64% 877.85 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners

Over 63% 25 shares
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5

Over 65% 1,600 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 80% 1,900 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5

Over 50% 400 shares