AboutTime

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $36.89
Potential payout: $3.35K
Potential profit: $3.32K
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$640.29

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $55.35
Potential payout: $299.2
Potential profit: $243.85
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $10.47

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $52.03
Potential payout: $281.25
Potential profit: $229.22
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $7.03

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $11.84
Potential payout: $197.31
Potential profit: $185.48
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$36.77

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $56.16
Potential payout: $187.2
Potential profit: $131.04
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$18.46

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $101.74
Potential payout: $186.68
Potential profit: $84.94
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $27.12

Yes position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $6.05
Potential payout: $180.71
Potential profit: $174.66
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$13.54

Yes position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $2.22
Potential payout: $114.01
Potential profit: $111.78
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$77.76

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.82
Potential payout: $108.91
Potential profit: $108.1
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$29.18

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 24.2%
Current value: $25.87
Potential payout: $107.14
Potential profit: $81.27
Multiplier: 4.14x
User PnL: -$4.12

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $81.68
Potential payout: $104.05
Potential profit: $22.37
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $7.22

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 21.4%
Current value: $21.55
Potential payout: $100.95
Potential profit: $79.4
Multiplier: 4.68x
User PnL: -$3.41

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $63.76
Potential payout: $86.75
Potential profit: $22.99
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $38.68

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $70.03
Potential payout: $85.93
Potential profit: $15.91
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$4.73

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $34.04
Potential payout: $84.06
Potential profit: $50.01
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$10.51

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $77.55
Potential payout: $83.84
Potential profit: $6.29
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.93

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $35.31
Potential payout: $82.11
Potential profit: $46.8
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$9.49

No position

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $56.78
Potential payout: $81.76
Potential profit: $24.98
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$17.62

Yes position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $15.38
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $61.54
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$4.62

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $65.62
Potential payout: $74.99
Potential profit: $9.37
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $25.87

GamerLegion position

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $42.95
Potential payout: $45.94
Potential profit: $2.99
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$1.15

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $2.54
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $39.13
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$2.46

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $39.86
Potential profit: $39.64
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 62.9%
Current value: $21.9
Potential payout: $34.79
Potential profit: $12.89
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: -$8.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Over 2.5 position

Mensik vs. Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46K

Over position

Mensik vs. Choinski: Match O/U 22.5

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $517.5

Devils position

Devils vs. Red Wings

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.44

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $313.59

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.52

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.9

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $229.2

Yes position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.07

Bruins position

Bruins vs. Sabres

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.29

Sabres position

Sabres vs. Canadiens

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.19

No position

Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.95

HC Dynamo Moscow position

KHL: Salavat Yulaev Ufa vs. HC Dynamo Moscow

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.17

Yes position

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.72

Yes position

Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.22

Yes position

Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $144.4

Lightning position

Lightning vs. Canadiens

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.6

Under position

Blackhawks vs. Wild: O/U 4.5

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.39

No position

Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.41

Under position

Kostyuk vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.22

Pallacanestro Reggiana position

Dinamo Sassari vs. Pallacanestro Reggiana

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.07

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.24

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?