No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $146.73K
- Potential payout
- $147.39K
- Potential profit
- $663.26
- User PnL
- $18.5K
Polymarket Trader
HongKongMenace
0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $195.41K
- Realized PnL
- $51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $45.97K
- Potential payout
- $45.97K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $5.42K
Yes position
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.4K
- Potential profit
- $17.4K
- User PnL
- -$2.77K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.57K
- Potential profit
- $15.57K
- User PnL
- -$15.34K
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $216.42
- Potential payout
- $9.84K
- Potential profit
- $9.62K
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$56.84
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$672.92
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $39.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $200.25
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $50.76
- Potential payout
- $846.02
- Potential profit
- $795.26
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$658.38
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $143.42
- Potential payout
- $637.43
- Potential profit
- $494.01
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $19.93
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $449.35
- Potential payout
- $583.57
- Potential profit
- $134.22
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $15.61
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $384.66
- Potential payout
- $387.76
- Potential profit
- $3.1
- User PnL
- $78.33
No position
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $313.8
- Potential profit
- $313.8
- User PnL
- -$306.73
Yes position
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.3%
- Current value
- $261.72
- Potential payout
- $290
- Potential profit
- $28.28
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $43.22
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $152.62
- Potential payout
- $153.16
- Potential profit
- $0.54
- User PnL
- $47.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.13K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.48K
No position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.07K
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.56K
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.48K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.26K
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $929.83
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $678.93
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $616.8
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $348.74
No position
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.85
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.12
No position
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.99
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275.15
No position
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.08
No position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.2
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.02
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.54
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.3
No position
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.83
No position
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.07
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes 95.1% 15,624.35 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 98.7% 9,600 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 98.2% 100 shares
- Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes 98.7% 13,022.97 shares
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 4.1% 2,000 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 98.6% 2,500 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 98.2% 2,596.8 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 98.1% 40,666.98 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 99.7% 12,781.87 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 97.4% 8,725.76 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 99.6% 10,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 97.4% 8,804.32 shares