stra-h11

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $2.88
Potential payout: $198.75
Potential profit: $195.87
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$3.12

No position

Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $198.75
Potential profit: $197.66
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$4.91

No position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $2.19
Potential payout: $198.74
Potential profit: $196.56
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$3.81

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $198.73
Potential profit: $196.35
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$3.61

No position

Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $5.86
Potential payout: $198.71
Potential profit: $192.85
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $155.25
Potential profit: $153.15
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$3.47

No position

Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $23.16
Potential payout: $118.75
Potential profit: $95.59
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $17.96

No position

Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $2.39
Potential payout: $103.8
Potential profit: $101.41
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$2.66

Yes position

Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.4
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.9
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.95
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $3.05

Yes position

Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will Baidu have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.4
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.25
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will ByteDance have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.45
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.85
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.85

Yes position

Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.1
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: $0.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.75

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.5

Down position

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.36

Down position

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.69

Yes position

Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99

No position

Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99

Yes position

Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.99

Yes position

Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.99

Yes position

Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $600B?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.99

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.75

Down position

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.75

No position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.65

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.67

No position

Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.83

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.97

No position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.16

Up position

Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29?