Yes position
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $194.25
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $2.4K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$49.84
Polymarket Trader
Machiavellian
0x79e7dc5919c4b079bcaa3aaef11f15082a0ff41f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $195.15
- Realized PnL
- $9.13K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$48.6
Yes position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$115
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $349.98
- Potential profit
- $349.98
- User PnL
- -$72
Yes position
US strikes Afghanistan by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$16.8
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.1
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$43.1
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$37.68
Yes position
John Brennan federally charged by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $159.18
- Potential profit
- $159.18
- User PnL
- -$38.43
Yes position
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156.06
- Potential profit
- $156.06
- User PnL
- -$20.12
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$22.5
Yes position
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130.23
- Potential profit
- $130.23
- User PnL
- -$18.67
Yes position
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $118.97
- Potential profit
- $118.97
- User PnL
- -$10.31
Yes position
John Brennan federally charged by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $116
- Potential profit
- $116
- User PnL
- -$18.68
Yes position
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$20.2
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$38
No position
Democratic sweep?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Starmer out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$16
No position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38K
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $962.8
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $831.28
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Adam Kinzinger?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $814.08
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Fauci?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $738.73
Yes position
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.66
No position
Daniel Penny found guilty?
Ends Dec 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.31
Yes position
Will Trump say "fascist" during Georgia rally on October 28?
Ends Oct 28, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.32
Trump position
Who will win Latino men?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.79
Yes position
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91
Yes position
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88
No position
Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during next White House press briefing?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85
Yes position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.99
Yes position
Will JD Vance say "Kamala" 30 or more times during the Joe Rogan podcast?
Ends Oct 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75
No position
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.7
No position
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during New York rally on October 27?
Ends Oct 27, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.61
Yes position
Trump wins every swing state?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.84
Yes position
Will Trump say "Puerto Rico" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?
Ends Oct 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.66
Yes position
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.99
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nobel Peace Prize" during September?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.5
Yes position
Will the fight go the distance?
Ends Nov 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.75
Yes position
Will Kimmel say "Disney" 2+ times during return show on September 23?
Ends Sep 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.6
No position
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 50 shares
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?Yes 10% 800 shares
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?Yes 10% 500 shares
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?Yes 8% 500 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?Yes 3.2% 1,732.26 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?Yes 13% 32.28 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Yes 6% 317 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes 17.4% 20 shares
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?Yes 8% 1,000 shares
- Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?Yes 12% 35 shares
- Epstein client list released in 2025?Yes 2.1% 162 shares
- Epstein client list released in 2025?Yes 4.2% 718.76 shares