Polymarket Trader

Lexifir

0x7a8a046067dd7958b1b42894568c532ec5ec2d31

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $107.14
Realized PnL: $8.67
Win rate: 29.2%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$15

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $666.67
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $19.06
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $605.94
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $324.71
Potential profit: $324.71
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $243.9
Potential profit: $243.9
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $80.86
Potential payout: $141.88
Potential profit: $61.02
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: -$14.14

Yes position

Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.36
Potential profit: $83.36
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $7.22
Potential payout: $21.23
Potential profit: $14.01
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $2.22

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.75
Potential profit: $18.75
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.88

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.56

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.92

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.08

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77

Yes position

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $1.97

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.53

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.42

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.88

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?

No 23.5% 21.23 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 16% 18.75 shares
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Yes 67% 141.88 shares
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Yes 1.1% 1,372.73 shares
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Yes 7.5% 666.67 shares
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Yes 3.2% 625 shares
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Yes 3.1% 111.11 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

No 2% 1,000 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

No 94.8% 8.19 shares
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Yes 3.4% 324.71 shares
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Yes 3.2% 166.66 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Yes 1.5% 62.5 shares