Morras

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $42.6
Potential payout: $262.97
Potential profit: $220.37
Multiplier: 6.17x
User PnL: $29.91

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $37.3
Potential payout: $257.21
Potential profit: $219.91
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$10.57

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 7.2%
Current value: $17
Potential payout: $236.1
Potential profit: $219.1
Multiplier: 13.89x
User PnL: -$5.76

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $192.99
Potential profit: $187.1
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $14.37
Potential payout: $184.19
Potential profit: $169.83
Multiplier: 12.82x
User PnL: -$3.53

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 23.7%
Current value: $39.5
Potential payout: $167
Potential profit: $127.5
Multiplier: 4.23x
User PnL: $34.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $3.07
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $146.92
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $6.13
Potential payout: $142.9
Potential profit: $136.77
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: $2.34

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $103.81
Potential profit: $98.78
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $15.67
Potential payout: $103.79
Potential profit: $88.12
Multiplier: 6.62x
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $10.8
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $69.2
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.7

No position

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $65.6
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $14.4
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63.81
Potential profit: $63.81
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $3.64
Potential payout: $59.62
Potential profit: $55.98
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: $0.36

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $45
User PnL: -$2.61

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 16.3%
Current value: $6.52
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $33.48
Multiplier: 6.13x
User PnL: $5.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $7.35
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $27.65
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $2.45

No position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $25.65
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $4.35
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 20.2%
Current value: $5.46
Potential payout: $27.1
Potential profit: $21.64
Multiplier: 4.96x
User PnL: $4.14

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $27.03
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $1.56
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.44
Multiplier: 12.82x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.41
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 17.8%
Current value: $3.56
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.44
Multiplier: 5.62x
User PnL: $1.24

Yes position

Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.7

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

Yes position

Tether insolvent in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.2

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.8

No position

Will Metaplanet hold 10k+ BTC before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.3

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

No position

State of Emergency in LA by Friday?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.55

Over position

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

Over position

AFC Ajax vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during his May 13 interview?

Ends May 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

Over position

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Tether insolvent in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?