Polymarket Trader

Shermansa

0x7b05789529bc13475b5e64daab4bf78a2d169f01

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $44.74
Realized PnL: $197.51
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.21
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $94.83
Potential profit: $94.21
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.41

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $94.55
Potential profit: $94.55
User PnL: -$1.04

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.9
Potential profit: $90.9
User PnL: -$1

No position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.2%
Current value: $9.23
Potential payout: $76
Potential profit: $66.77
Multiplier: 8.23x
User PnL: -$3.77

Yes position

Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $70.39
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.33
Potential profit: $68.33
User PnL: -$4.05

No position

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.75
Potential profit: $55.75
User PnL: -$9.38

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $54.47
Potential profit: $54.44
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10.6

Yes position

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.33
Potential profit: $48.33
User PnL: -$5.9

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $46.27
Potential profit: $46.02
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $26.45
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $19.55
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$4.92

Ireland position

ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$1

No position

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $1.87
Potential payout: $45.1
Potential profit: $43.23
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$1.16

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.85
Potential profit: $41.85
User PnL: -$5.93

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.37
Potential profit: $41.37
User PnL: -$4.45

Monte position

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.89
Potential profit: $37.89
User PnL: -$7.43

Yes position

Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

Ends Jan 25, 2027

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $4.61
Potential payout: $35.48
Potential profit: $30.86
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$0.54

Bosnia and Herzegovina position

Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.9

Bulls position

Bucks vs. Bulls

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.7

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.89

Heat position

Rockets vs. Heat

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.36

No position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.74

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $8.95

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.02

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.86

Colombia position

Spread: Colombia (-1.5)

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.6

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.6

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.84

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.78

No position

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.3

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.25

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.63

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.7%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $4.92

Stars position

Bruins vs. Stars

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.87

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.26

B8 position

Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

No 37% 1.96 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

No 11.8% 14.97 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 61% 10.7 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

Yes 18% 9.94 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Yes 36% 9.97 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 81.2% 4.6 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

Yes 18% 5.56 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 81.6% 4.61 shares
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?

No 50% 2.02 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?

No 4% 5 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?

No 8% 15 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?

Yes 64% 5 shares