Polymarket Trader

AlphaSurf

0x7b1488c093fe347aefd7fdb855a7cfe792deaf44

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $101.04
Realized PnL: $765.85
Win rate: 70.8%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.5
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $11.73
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $170.09
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: $1.73

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.46
Potential profit: $120.46
User PnL: -$50.5

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $61.47
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

Ends Aug 26, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $25.29
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $33.53
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $5.29

Yes position

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $54.05
Potential profit: $53.49
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.43

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $51.74
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $44.9
Potential payout: $48.54
Potential profit: $3.64
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $11.97

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.1%
Current value: $8.94
Potential payout: $25.51
Potential profit: $16.57
Multiplier: 2.85x
User PnL: $3.94

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38.6%
Current value: $6.94
Potential payout: $18
Potential profit: $11.06
Multiplier: 2.59x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.38
Potential profit: $9.38
User PnL: -$1.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Multiplier: 4.56x
User PnL: $344.44

No position

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $240.45

Yes position

Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29?

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.63

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.71

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.7

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.04

No position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.52

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.05

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.21

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.03

Yes position

Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the February Meeting?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 89.4%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.34

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 78.1%
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during January press conference?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.34

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 0.2% 31.25 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19.6% 25.51 shares
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.5% 181.82 shares
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

Yes 34% 58.82 shares
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?

Yes 16% 9.38 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 1.1% 181.82 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 16% 31.25 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 18.5% 253.8 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 19.7% 152.28 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 19.7% 101.52 shares
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?

Yes 69.1% 43.4 shares
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 0.2% 500 shares