No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $18K
- User PnL
- -$450
Polymarket Trader
karbonbased
0x7bd822a18f12f62fdc617b0021006ec4f7f44979
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.91K
- Realized PnL
- $45.06K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.97K
- Potential profit
- $6.97K
- User PnL
- -$663.44
No position
SBF released from custody in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $3.37K
- Potential payout
- $3.37K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $287.83
Yes position
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.17K
- Potential profit
- $3.17K
- User PnL
- -$1.57K
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $1.54K
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $282.66
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $116.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Donald Trump say "Reagan" during his North Carolina speech?
Ends Sep 25, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.38K
Georgia Tech position
CFB: Florida St. vs. Georgia Tech
Ends Aug 24, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.58K
Bitboy position
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night
Ends Dec 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $4.52K
No position
Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during his Michigan town hall?
Ends Sep 17, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68K
Yes position
Will Georgia win by 14 or more points?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27K
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94K
No position
Iran military response by Friday?
Ends Aug 16, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88K
No position
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67K
Yes position
Will Trump say "AK-47" during the X space?
Ends Sep 16, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
Yes position
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
Yes position
Will threadguy interview Trump before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
Yes position
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during New York rally on October 27?
Ends Oct 27, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
No position
Will Trump say "Trans" during Elon interview?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6?
Ends Sep 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 2 or more times during his North Carolina speech?
Ends Sep 25, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?
Ends Sep 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Michigan town hall?
Ends Aug 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Yes position
Will Biden say "Convicted felon" at DNC speech?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Yes position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at his press conference?
Ends Aug 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Will Kamala Harris say "Abortion" during Friday speech?
Ends Aug 16, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $978.49
Yes position
Bitcoin above $55,000 on September 13?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $850.99
Yes position
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour?
Ends Jul 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $760
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Pennsylvania rally?
Ends Aug 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $605
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $569.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?No 3.2% 15,499.92 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo 81% 207.56 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo 80% 681.95 shares
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?Yes 58% 21 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 92% 149.69 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 91.9% 200.65 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 93% 110 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 92.8% 200 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 92.5% 300 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 92.4% 121 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 92.4% 67 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2025?No 92% 152.47 shares