Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $2.2K
- Potential payout
- $4.35K
- Potential profit
- $2.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$50.21
Polymarket Trader
fElon
0x7bd9019211677f5db6e221d6a6da030ebcd0bd75
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.4K
- Realized PnL
- $15.08K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $2.53K
- Potential payout
- $2.96K
- Potential profit
- $428.85
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $202.55
No position
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $2.16K
- Potential payout
- $2.63K
- Potential profit
- $473.74
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $524.87
No position
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- -$344.4
No position
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $11.48
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $57.28
No position
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $737.62
- Potential payout
- $797.43
- Potential profit
- $59.81
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $58.53
No position
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $225.39
- Potential payout
- $247.82
- Potential profit
- $22.43
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $18.21
Yes position
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $91.2
- Potential payout
- $240
- Potential profit
- $148.8
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $111
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $89
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $145.16
- Potential payout
- $147
- Potential profit
- $1.84
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.95
No position
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $22.71
- Potential payout
- $129.79
- Potential profit
- $107.08
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $41.04
- Potential payout
- $46.91
- Potential profit
- $5.86
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- -$0.84
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98K
Yes position
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
No position
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $936.42
Yes position
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $930.78
Yes position
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $771.74
No position
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $633.23
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $620.66
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $597.49
No position
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.98
No position
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $470.31
No position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.98
No position
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $463.31
Yes position
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418.33
Yes position
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $402.12
No position
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $399.26
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $394.13
No position
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $390.84
Yes position
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $360.79
No position
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $356
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.25
Yes position
Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $311.31
No position
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.09
Yes position
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $285.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes 49.7% 422 shares
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 17% 239.36 shares
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 17% 50 shares
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 17% 14 shares
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 80% 150 shares
- Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 71% 14.7 shares
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No 18.4% 175 shares
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes 50% 20 shares
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Norris?Norris 99% 5 shares
- Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Yes 42.6% 111.71 shares
- Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Yes 43.1% 43 shares
- Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Yes 44% 40 shares