mubs

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $1.24K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $51.15
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $33.23

Anthropic position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $179.8
Potential payout: $232
Potential profit: $52.2
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$19.79

No position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $198.45
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $11.55
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $90.94
Potential payout: $129
Potential profit: $38.06
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$8.39

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $99.9
Potential payout: $108
Potential profit: $8.1
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $101.43
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $3.57
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.44

No position

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $99.91
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $5.09
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Hasan Piker arrested by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $101.69
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $0.31
User PnL: $1.21

No position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $99.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: $13.75

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $93.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.35
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.65

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $91
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $9
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$1

No position

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $87.53
Potential payout: $87.66
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $19.15

Yes position

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $2.74
Potential payout: $59.49
Potential profit: $56.75
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$1.02

No position

Will US Bank fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $50.75
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $0.26
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $49.78
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $49.8
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $49.95
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $10.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $39.75
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$38.75

Meta position

Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $39.76
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $0.24
User PnL: $4.16

Spurs position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$20

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $28.39
Potential payout: $28.58
Potential profit: $0.19
User PnL: $8.1

No position

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $23.99
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.41

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $21.05
Potential payout: $23
Potential profit: $1.95
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.71

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.62

No position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.3

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.21

LNG Esports position

LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3)

Ends Dec 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.54

No position

Steam Awards Parlay

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.68

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 29?

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.01

No position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.05

No position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.3

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 26?

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.4

No position

Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.23

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.12

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.93

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.84

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.45

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.77

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.3

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?