Polymarket Trader

0x7c2763161E569e34432C2eEFF1A73d306FAe6e68-1770366654818

0x7c2763161e569e34432c2eeff1a73d306fae6e68

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $158.76
Realized PnL: $253.68
Win rate: 78.6%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $771.83
Potential profit: $771.83
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $262.5
Potential profit: $262.5
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $260
Potential profit: $260
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Austria win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $231.82
Potential profit: $231.82
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $208.4
Potential profit: $208.09
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$14.69

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $154.82
Potential profit: $154.74
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$19.92

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $146.71
Potential profit: $146.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.93

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $127.08
Potential payout: $135.92
Potential profit: $8.83
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $77.08

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.03
Potential profit: $129.03
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $11.18
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $106.47
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$8.82

Yes position

Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $116.11
Potential profit: $116.11
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.78
Potential profit: $92.78
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $19.62
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $57.31
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $9.62

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.61
Potential profit: $60.61
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump say "Greenland" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.47
Potential profit: $59.47
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $57.06
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$19.91

No position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $51.55
Potential profit: $51.21
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$19.66

No position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.28
Potential profit: $51.28
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Trump say "Russia" during the State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.51
Potential profit: $47.51
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.67
Potential profit: $43.67
User PnL: -$10

No position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.55
Potential profit: $42.55
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.9

No position

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.7

Yes position

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.26

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.39

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.63

Yes position

Will Trump say "Tariff" 6+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.83

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

Yes position

Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.1%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$1.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

No 62% 16.13 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 36.8% 135.92 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 11.3% 40.98 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 12.2% 40.98 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

No 94% 8.39 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

No 89% 8.39 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

No 76% 52.63 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 33% 60.61 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

No 61% 16.39 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 41% 24.39 shares
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?

Yes 29.8% 65.12 shares
Will Trump say "Greenland" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?

Yes 33.6% 59.47 shares