No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $4.98K
- Potential payout
- $5.15K
- Potential profit
- $172.46
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $516.79
Polymarket Trader
haroldfintch
0x7cc9ce7c210a9bbaa2c3a6b5afcb22192fc5f76f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.48K
- Realized PnL
- -$731.36
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.73
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$117.64
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $500
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $90
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- $190.04
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Multiplier
- 27.03x
- User PnL
- $179.5
No position
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175
Yes position
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.25
Yes position
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $18.5
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.6
Yes position
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.63
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be over 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$71.33
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.39K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 91.6% 133.12 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 87% 113.11 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 85% 9.85 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 78% 22.22 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 79.6% 453.32 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 76% 95.23 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 75% 9.75 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 76% 4.88 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 77% 67.14 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 75.8% 19.52 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 76% 63.8 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Yes 73% 82.71 shares