Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.82K
- Potential payout
- $10.37K
- Potential profit
- $8.56K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.67K
Polymarket Trader
Tomson456
0x7d9f9cf303066a0b0acd33c122817770ad83f01b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.89K
- Realized PnL
- $530.42
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $39.53
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$160.47
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.08
- Potential payout
- $831.58
- Potential profit
- $829.5
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$197.2
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $28.53
- Potential payout
- $380.46
- Potential profit
- $351.93
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$70.39
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.96
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.89
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.66
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.76
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.89
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.18
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.84
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.21
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.41
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.91
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.43
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 30.4% 3,280.66 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 35.4% 5,619.55 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 7% 4,270.29 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 20.6% 2,413.83 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 31.3% 1,591.44 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 33.8% 1,474.07 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes 36% 830.33 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Yes 26% 380.46 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 15.9% 1,255 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 24% 831.58 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETDown 62% 100.84 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ETDown 56.2% 94.69 shares