Polymarket Trader

ragutwo

0x7db8cfe928918e6f7f80a31d98757d97e743ed19

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $554.59
Realized PnL: $1.72K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $963
Potential profit: $963
User PnL: -$33.86

Yes position

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $200.58
Potential payout: $691.67
Potential profit: $491.09
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $11.92

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $540
Potential profit: $540
User PnL: -$2.02

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $447.99
Potential profit: $447.99
User PnL: -$2.02

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $18.68
Potential payout: $435.43
Potential profit: $416.75
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$7.68

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $396.43
Potential profit: $396.43
User PnL: -$17.05

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $194.06
Potential payout: $337.49
Potential profit: $143.43
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $121.78

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.32
Potential profit: $312.32
User PnL: -$3.12

Yes position

Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $222.43
Potential profit: $222.43
User PnL: -$6.12

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $22.13
Potential payout: $192.41
Potential profit: $170.28
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $2.39

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $43.02
Potential payout: $165.48
Potential profit: $122.46
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135
Potential profit: $135
User PnL: -$8.46

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $131.25
Potential profit: $131.25
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $70.62
Potential payout: $126.1
Potential profit: $55.48
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: $24.09

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.99
Potential profit: $119.99
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.39
Potential profit: $113.39
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.14
Potential profit: $104.14
User PnL: -$17.84

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.5
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$9.5

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $95
User PnL: -$66.85

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $94.71
Potential profit: $94.71
User PnL: -$8.52

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $288.32

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.84

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.21

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $116.19

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.05

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.32

No position

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.66

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.06

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.83

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.77

No position

Will Eric Adams finish his term as NYC mayor?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.54

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $31.66

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.61

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.25

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.15

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.36

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $28.13

Yes position

Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 90.8%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $28.02

Yes position

Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.27

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.89

No position

Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.06

Yes position

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.38

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 15.8% 19 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 50% 2 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes 6% 20 shares
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Yes 31% 45 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 5.7% 194.43 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 5.8% 41 shares
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Yes 20% 50 shares
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Yes 8.2% 164.9 shares
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Yes 27.6% 29.5 shares
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?

No 80% 35.78 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 6% 100 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 6% 35 shares